There is considerable risk that if Mubarak stays in power or even in the country there could be a covert crackdown on those involved in the demonstrations. The process of building the new government could then be co-opted with political life in Egypt returning to business as usual: intimidation, oppression, and corruption. The turn of events including the violence of the last few days was orchestrated. The spin from state media and the politicians’ statements make it apparent that the government is still up to its old tricks. It is clear that the regime has not changed its behavior in the least and is simply playing a political game to get out of this situation and indeed to turn it in its favor. Trusting dictators is foolhardy… you know what they say: fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.
The following list is of some of the pieces which do not add up.
- Journalists attacked/arrested damaging cameras
- Ramses Hilton looted/raided targeting cameras
- Restriction on leaving house at any time with out ID
- Covert collaboration between thugs and army (it’s curious that whenever violence breaks out between thugs and protesters the army is no where to be found, while on other nights they have taken over the checkpoints from the neighborhood watch and there is a base right around the corner)
- Intimidation of neighborhood watch groups (passive reaction to thugs, allowing passage to and from fighting protesters)
- Intimidation of foreigners to keep us in homes even outside of curfew.
- Intermittent problems with mobile connections and website access, including inability to upload media to youtube/BBC and disruption of specific numbers and international calls
- Infiltration of demonstrations by pro-Mubarak people taking photos
- State media portrayal of the demonstrations as foreign instigated and supported and accrediting it to the Muslim Brotherhood thereby discrediting the popular movement and claiming that demonstrators are divided.
- Military police arresting sub-Saharan Africans in home and girls food shopping, not accepting UNHCR blue cards as ID.
- Attack on pipeline by “a big terrorist operation”, according to state media, is too convenient (opportunity created to show that country is insecure and at risk because of the demonstrations).